Agricultural Products

Changes in 2021 from 2020:

• U.S. total exports: Increased by $28.2 billion (17.9 percent) to $185.4 billion
  • U.S. domestic exports: Increased by $27.8 billion (18.3 percent) to $179.3 billion
  • U.S. re-exports: Increased by $406 million (7.1 percent) to $6.1 billion
• U.S. general imports: Increased by $30.4 billion (18.6 percent) to $193.8 billion

The value of U.S. domestic exports of agricultural products^[1] rose by $27.8 billion (18.3 percent) to a record $179.3 billion in 2021; this represents a substantially higher growth rate than the 5.3 percent growth from 2019 to 2020 and the average annual growth of 4.9 percent since 2016 (table AG.1).^[2] Higher prices, driven by global food price inflation, contributed to many of these increased values. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Food Price Index increased from 113.5 in January 2021 to 133.7 in December 2021.^[3] The FAO meat price index increased from 96.0 to 111.0, the dairy price index increased from 111.2 to 129.0, the cereals price index increased from 125.0 to 140.5, and the largest increase was recorded in the vegetable oils price index, which increased from 138.9 to 178.5.^[4] Increased global food prices were generally driven by increasing import demand, especially from China, relative to flat or reduced export supplies, including supply chain disruptions caused by ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and higher demand following the initial COVID-19 pandemic related slowdown.

Among U.S. exports of agricultural products, the cereals subheadings in the USITC digest (digest), which includes corn and wheat, recorded the largest increase in exports, rising by $11.2 billion (58.8 percent).^[5] Other digests where exports increased by more than $1 billion include cattle and beef ($3.1 billion, 41.7 percent); animal feeds, which includes distillers’ grains and pet foods ($2.5 billion, 18.8 percent); oilseeds including soybeans ($1.9 billion, 7.4 percent); dairy products ($1.2 billion, 20.3 percent); and poultry ($1.0 billion, 23.3 percent). Combined, these digests represented 75.7 percent of the net total export value increase in 2021. Exports to Mexico and China contributed the largest absolute values to the record growth, up $7.1 billion and $6.7 billion, respectively. China remained the largest destination for U.S. agricultural exports after overtaking both Canada and Mexico in 2020. Two factors affecting U.S. exports to China of many agricultural products in 2021 continued to be (1) developments in U.S.-China trade relations, and (2) developments in the livestock sector affecting Chinese import demand for feed grains.^[6] As a result, exports to China continued to recover from the effects of trade actions imposed during 2018 and eased during 2020.^[7]

The value of U.S. general imports of agricultural products rose by $30.4 billion (18.6 percent) to $193.8 billion in 2021 (table AG.2). As with food and agricultural exports, the key contributors to increased import values in many sectors were food price inflation and increasing demand as COVID-19 pandemic related lockdowns were eased.^[8] This shift is substantial when compared with a $3.6 billion (2.2 percent) increase in 2020. Shellfish continued to be the top digest for U.S. agricultural imports and also showed the largest increase with import value rising by $4.5 billion (41.3 percent) to $15.6 billion in 2021. Other sectors with large increases in imports were animal or vegetable fats and oils (up $3.3 billion); fresh or frozen fish (up $2.0 billion); distilled spirits (up $1.8 billion); and wine and certain other fermented beverages (up $1.5 billion).

The top suppliers of U.S. agricultural imports in 2021 continued to be United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) partners Mexico and Canada, followed by France and Italy. Imports from all four sources grew: Canada by $7.7 billion (27.4 percent), Mexico by $5.2 billion (15.3 percent), France by $1.7 billion (29.3 percent), and Italy by $1.0 billion (18.1 percent).^[9]

U.S. Domestic Exports

U.S. exports of products in the cereal digest, which is composed mostly of corn and wheat (89.8 percent by volume, 85.8 percent by value), increased by $11.2 billion (58.8 percent) to reach $30.3 billion in 2021.^[10] Exports of corn rose by $9.5 billion (103.2 percent), setting an all-time high; followed by wheat, which increased by $944 million (15.0 percent); and grain sorghum, which grew by $642 million (47.2 percent).^[11] The overall increase was dominated by U.S. No. 2 yellow dent corn exports but was also driven by both rising volumes and rising unit values for most cereals.^[12] The volume of U.S. No. 2 yellow dent corn exports increased by 35.2 percent (17.6 million metric tons) while the average unit value increased by 51.3 percent, from $177 to $268 per metric ton.^[13] Corn exports were particularly strong to China in 2021, rising by $3.9 billion (316.4 percent).^[14] The leading export destinations for U.S. cereal digest exports included China (up $4.8 billion), Mexico (up $2.6 billion), and Japan (up $1.4 billion).^[15]

U.S. exports of cattle and beef rebounded rapidly from pandemic decreases, setting records for volumes (number of live animals and quantity of meat) and total value.^[16] The total value of these exports increased $3.1 billion (41.7 percent) in 2021 after decreasing by $410.7 million in 2020. Exports of cattle and beef to China more than quintupled, increasing by $1.3 billion (or 436.7 percent) to an all-time high of $1.5 billion.^[17] Beef demand in China has been growing rapidly as consumers shift purchases from pork to beef due to lack of pork supply and high prices resulting from African swine fever.^[18] According to the USDA, U.S. exports to China have continued to be facilitated by the Phase One Trade Agreement that removed Chinese tariffs via the February 2020 exclusion list.^[19] Exports of cattle and beef to South Korea exceeded pre-pandemic levels and also set a record, rising by $668 million (39.1 percent) to $2.4 billion.^[20] Exports to Mexico recovered to pre-pandemic levels, increasing by $277.0 million (34.6 percent) after falling by $207 million (20.5 percent) in 2020. For Mexico and South Korea, the increased exports are attributable to rebounding economic conditions and reopening of foodservice establishments in 2021. Specifically, pandemic-related disruptions in 2020 had created economic recessions in Mexico and South Korea causing households in those countries to switch to lower priced meats. The disruptions also greatly reduced demand for beef in the Mexican and South Korean hotel, restaurant, and institutional sectors.^[21]

U.S. animal feed exports increased by $2.5 billion (18.8 percent) in 2021.^[22] Soybean oilcake (soybean meal), brewing or distilling dregs (distillers’ grains), and dog and cat food for retail sale combined to comprise 75.2 percent of this gain.^[23] Exports of soybean meal grew by $901 million (24.8 percent), dried distiller grains with solubles increased by $669 million (28.7 percent), and dog and cat food rose by $339 million (19.8 percent). By export market, the largest increases were to Mexico (up $454 million or 30.4 percent), Canada (up $441 million or 25.2 percent), and China (up $413 million or 45.1 percent). Increased animal feed exports to Mexico (principally soybean meal and distillers’ grains) were driven by the country’s strong output of animal products, both for domestic consumption and for export.^[24] According to USDA and industry sources, demand from China’s dairy sector as well as the Phase One Trade Agreement and the subsequent reduction in the Chinese tariff on U.S. alfalfa hay via the February 2020 exclusion list helped boost U.S. alfalfa hay exports to China to another record in 2021.^[25] Canadian purchases of U.S. pet food continued to rise in 2021 (up $139 million), as pandemic-driven increases in pet ownership elevated demand in Canada’s pet food market.^[26]

U.S. exports of oilseeds (predominantly soybeans) grew by $1.9 billion (7.4 percent) to reach $27.7 billion.^[27] The increase in value was driven by higher unit values—$519 per metric ton in 2021 versus $402 per metric ton in 2020—as the total volume actually decreased from a record 64.1 million metric tons in 2020 to 53.4 million metric tons in 2021.^[28] The overall increase in oilseeds export value was primarily from increases to traditionally large U.S. markets, including Mexico (up $787 million or 41.2 percent), the European Union (EU) (up $391.6 million or 20.5 percent), Japan (up $278 million or 25.5 percent), and Indonesia (up $198.1 million or 22.3 percent).^[29] EU soybean demand was robust in 2021 as animal feed demand was greater than expected and EU rapeseed production stagnated such that soybean meal replaced rapeseed meal in animal feed.^[30]

U.S. exports of dairy products reached both volume and value records in 2021 after setting a volume record in 2020.^[31] The value of U.S. dairy exports reached $7.1 billion, a rise of $1.2 billion (20.3 percent) compared to 2020. The largest increases were to Mexico (up $385.1 million or 27.9 percent) and China (up $194.9 million or 39.0 percent). By product, the value of skim milk powder (SMP) exports grew the most, by $489.1 million (24.4 percent).^[32] This increase in value was driven by both a volume increase of 10.2 percent and a unit value increase of 12.9 percent. SMP is a versatile ingredient used widely in Mexico’s food industry where the continued recovery from the downturn related to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic led to rising demand, especially for baked goods and desserts.^[33] Meanwhile, the domestic supply of SMP in Mexico is limited by capacity and U.S. SMP is competitively priced over Mexican production.^[34] Growing U.S. dairy exports to China reflected a return to levels similar to those prior to the U.S. and Chinese trade actions in 2018 and the African swine fever outbreak.^[35] The 2021 increase in SMP exports to China made SMP the largest U.S. dairy export to China. Total cheese exports increased by $203.3 million (12.8 percent), butter and other fat exports rose by $115.4 million (116.7 percent), and lactose exports increased by $87.1 million (22.2 percent).^[36]

U.S. General Imports

Shellfish was the leading import increase in the agricultural sector, with imports rising by $4.6 billion (41.3 percent) to $15.6 billion in 2021.^[37] The increase was driven by imports of shrimp, crabs and crabmeat, and lobster. The import value of shrimp and prawns and associated products (up $1.6 billion or 24.2 percent) was driven by both higher prices and increased volumes due to rising global and U.S. demand.^[38] U.S. shrimp producers and traders were able to successfully shift focus from food service to retail sales in 2021 as the ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic reduced shrimp foodservice demand and increased at-home consumption.^[39] In addition, Gulf of Mexico shrimp landings during the first half of 2021 were at the lowest level in the last 20 years.^[40] The import value of crabs, crabmeat, and associated products grew by $1.5 billion (66.3 percent), driven by higher prices and increased demand as U.S. consumers shifted to home consumption and were not deterred by the high retail prices.^[41] Lobster and lobster product imports rose in value by $910 million (72.9 percent). According to the FAO, U.S. retail demand was strong and lobster foodservice markets recovered, increasing prices as lobster supplies struggled to keep pace.^[42] Canada was the largest U.S. supplier of shellfish, with imports from Canada increasing by $1.6 billion (82.2 percent); these imports were dominated by crab and lobster. The value of shellfish imports from India (up $681.6 million or 28.2 percent) and Ecuador (up $580 million or 73.4 percent) also grew substantially. Ecuador and India are among the world’s largest producers and exporters of farm-raised shrimp.^[43]

Imports of animal or vegetable fats and oils increased by $3.3 billion (49.9 percent) to $9.9 billion in 2021.^[44] Products leading the increase in this digest included crude and refined low erucic acid rapeseed or colza oil, more commonly known as canola oil (up $1.3 billion or 81.4 percent); and crude and refined palm and palm kernel oil (up $880 million or 65.3 percent).^[45] The rising import values were driven primarily by unit value increases (see discussion of the FAO vegetable oils price index above) but also increased by quantity. Price increases were driven by drought in Argentina and Brazil that reduced soybean supply while a typhoon and ongoing COVID-19 pandemic-related labor shortages in Malaysia decreased the palm oil supply.^[46] By country, imports from Canada, the leading global source of canola oil, rose by $1.6 billion (78.2 percent).^[47] Price was a significant driver as Canadian canola oil prices increased from $742 to $1,146 (54.5 percent) per ton.^[48] Among leading country sources of U.S. imports of tropical oils such as palm oil and palm kernel oil, imports from Indonesia increased by $1.1 billion (108.8 percent) and from the Philippines by $185.4 million (53.3 percent). Imports from Spain—a leading producer of olive oil—grew by $179.2 million (51.8 percent).

Fresh and frozen fish imports increased by $2.1 billion (26.0 percent) in 2021 after decreasing by $780 million (9.0 percent) in 2020.^[49] In particular, the value of salmon imports, including fresh and chilled salmon fillets, rose by $1.1 billion (28.8 percent).^[50] According to the FAO, the growth in salmon trade was mostly driven by increased prices as demand returned after the pandemic induced slowdown in the 2020 salmon foodservice market.^[51] Easing of restrictions on food service establishments in 2021 supported increased imports, as the food service industry accounts for almost two-thirds of U.S. consumer seafood expenditures.^[52] The salmon industry has been able to leverage its highly integrated supply chain and marketing power to effectively meet increased retail demand as well as rising demand from e-commerce and delivery sales.^[53] Despite a broad-based recovery in demand, sourcing of fresh and frozen fish continued to shift away from China: imports from that country decreased for the fourth consecutive year, falling by another $81 million (6.7 percent) in 2021. Meanwhile, imports from Chile (up $626 million or 27.6 percent), Canada (up $257 million or 27.6 percent), Norway (up $196 million or 27.0 percent), and Vietnam (up $159 million or 34.3 percent) recovered strongly from 2020’s pandemic-related import level decreases. Chile and Norway are among the leading producers and exporters of farmed Atlantic salmon.^[54]

Imports of distilled spirits increased by $1.8 billion (20.1 percent) after a drop of $612 million (6.5 percent) in 2020.^[55] Imports of tequila from Mexico (the sole producer and exporter of tequila) grew by slightly more than $1.0 billion (40.5 percent).^[56] Although pandemic-related bar and restaurant closures significantly reduced on-premise demand, U.S. imports of tequila in 2021 increased in large part due to the onset and continued adoption of direct-to-consumer online sales spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic-related restrictions as top-selling tequila-based cocktails, such as margaritas, can be replicated at home.^[57] Brandy imports rose $396 million (23.3 percent), more than recovering the $180 million (9.6 percent) decrease in 2020.^[58] However, imports of Irish and Scotch whiskies continued to decrease, dropping by an additional $97 million (6.9 percent) for a total decline of $905 million since 2019 (41.0 percent).^[59] The decrease in Irish and Scotch whiskies can be largely attributed to a 25 percent tariff that the United States imposed on certain distilled spirits products from the EU in October 2019 as part of authorized countermeasures under the WTO Large Civil Aircraft litigation.^[60] As a result, the value of imports of distilled spirits from the United Kingdom have declined by $702 million (33.9 percent) and from Ireland by $406 million (50.7 percent) since 2019.^[61]

 

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