Figure ST.1 Commodity Indices based on sectoral grouping, 2019–21.
World Bank Commodity Price Index components—Energy (coal, crude oil, natural gas); Agriculture (food, vegetable oils and meals, and other food); Metals (base metals: aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin, and zinc).

Figure ST.2 Energy sectoral indices and certain price series, 2019–21.
Nominal monthly indices are based on averaged monthly values from 2010 prices and commodity prices in real U.S. dollars. Underlying data for this figure are available for download at https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets.

Figure ST.3 Agricultural sectoral indices.
Nominal monthly indices are based on averaged monthly values from 2010 prices and commodity prices in real U.S. dollars. Underlying data for this figure are available for download at https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets.

Figure ST.4. Base metals index and certain base metal price series, 2019–21.
Nominal monthly indices are based on averaged monthly values from 2010 prices and commodity prices in real U.S. dollars. Underlying data for this figure are available for download at https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets.

Unwrought Aluminum

Background

Unwrought aluminum—known for its light weight, high strength, and recyclability—is used in many applications across several sectors including construction, automotive, aerospace, and packaging.^[37] Global pricing for aluminum is typically based on trading prices at the London Metal Exchange (LME), a metal futures trading market.^[38] While the LME price acts as a global price, major consuming regions also often have regional spot prices, such as the Midwest Premium, which dictates the price of aluminum in the Midwest United States.^[39] Unwrought aluminum is commonly categorized into primary and secondary unwrought. Primary unwrought is aluminum that has been newly refined from mined ore, while secondary unwrought aluminum is largely composed of aluminum scrap that has been remelted. Both primary unwrought aluminum and secondary unwrought aluminum are typically bought and sold in the form of billets or ingots.^[40] Unwrought aluminum can be shipped by truck or rail on land and by ship overseas.^[41]

According to World Bank commodity pricing data, average annual aluminum prices increased by nearly $769 per metric ton (45.1 percent) in 2021, reaching their highest monthly prices since 2008.^[42] Prices began rising in May 2020, corresponding with a rebound in global manufacturing and construction that followed initial COVID-19 pandemic-related production curtailments. Between May 2020 and July 2021, prices grew at a fairly steady rate, averaging 3.9 percent monthly. Prices then spiked by 8.9 percent between August and September 2021, and peaked at their highest point in October 2021. Although prices fell slightly in November, December price levels were still well above those of previous years.

Source: World Bank Group, “Commodity Markets (The Pink Sheet),” accessed March 18, 2022.

Global Supply Factors

Global aluminum smelter production grew from 65.1 million tons in 2020 to 68.0 million tons in 2021, an increase of 4.5 percent.^[43] Despite this growth, demand rose more quickly and global aluminum prices rose significantly. Additional growth in aluminum production was limited by several supply-side factors, including shortages of upstream inputs such as alumina and bauxite, high energy costs, slowing production in China, and increased freight rates and shipping delays.^[44]

At the beginning of the aluminum supply chain, prices for bauxite from Guinea, the world’s second largest bauxite producer, spiked to an 18-month high in July following a military coup in Guinea.^[45] Bauxite and alumina supply chains were further constrained as several bauxite mines and alumina refineries were shut down in China, while Brazil and Jamaica experienced reduced capacity and also saw closures of alumina refineries.^[46]

Aluminum production costs were also affected by surging global energy prices, as primary aluminum smelting is extremely energy intensive. Industry sources estimate that electricity generally accounts for about 30 percent of the total cost of primary aluminum production. In China, however, the world’s largest aluminum-producing country, electricity may account for closer to 45 percent of aluminum production costs.^[47] China’s high energy prices led to decreasing aluminum production in the country during the second half of the year.^[48] Flooding in the Shangxi province, which provides 30 percent of China’s energy supply, caused the temporary closure of more than 60 coal mines.^[49] Meanwhile, droughts in the Yunnan province, which supplies about 10 percent of the country’s aluminum capacity, led local governments to cap aluminum production capacity due to hydropower shortages.^[50] Power-related curtailments in these and several other regions contributed to nearly 2.3 million metric tons of Chinese production cuts between September and November 2021.^[51] The power issues and related curtailments, as well as China nearing its government-set cap on aluminum capacity, not only affected prices but also caused China to increase imports over the last two years.^[52] China’s unwrought aluminum imports increased by 633 percent in 2020 and another 75 percent in 2021, reducing the availability of the commodity in other markets.^[53]

The energy price spike expanded beyond China and became a global issue for aluminum smelters, particularly in Europe where natural gas prices also rose significantly in 2021.^[54] Industry sources claim that high energy prices prevented idled capacity in Europe and elsewhere from coming back online to benefit from the rising aluminum demand and prices.^[55] At least one European aluminum smelter idled capacity because of high energy prices in 2021,^[56] and several more have since idled or planned to idle capacity at the beginning of 2022, indicating an ongoing trend.^[57] Finally, as is the case with many other commodities, increased freight rates and global shipping delays have also contributed to tighter supplies and higher delivered costs for aluminum.^[58]

Global Demand Factors

Global aluminum demand growth outstripped supply growth in 2021. The Economist Intelligence Unit estimates that global demand for primary aluminum increased by 7.8 percent in 2021, while production only rose by 4.5 percent.^[59] Some of the rising demand can be attributed to rebounds in the downstream construction and auto sectors that followed initial COVID-19 pandemic-related production slowdowns.^[60] The global construction market, which accounts for 25 percent of global aluminum consumption, increased by 4.1 percent in 2021.^[61] Meanwhile, global motor vehicle production increased by 10.0 percent in the first three quarters of 2021, and 3.0 percent for the full year 2021.^[62]

In addition to production rebounds in traditional downstream sectors, demand growth can also be attributed to a push for “green” technology and products in several sectors.^[63] In 2020, a survey of North American automakers found that aluminum is the fastest-growing material used in cars and trucks, and aluminum content levels were expected to increase by 12 percent by 2026. Aluminum’s lighter weight in vehicles contributes to improved gas mileage and less fuel emissions and allows for the extra weight of batteries in electric vehicles. Electric vehicles, which tend to use more aluminum, saw sales growth of 98 percent over 2020 sales globally, despite semiconductor microchip and other component shortages.^[64]

Aluminum beverage cans also saw strong demand in 2021, attributable to rising interest in sustainable and recyclable packaging.^[65] In addition, industry sources also cite to the growing popularity of craft beers, hard seltzers, and other beverages increasingly being offered in cans.^[66]

Impact on U.S. Trade Flows

The value of aluminum trade flows to and from the United States grew significantly in 2021. Imports of unwrought aluminum saw large increases, growing by $4.5 billion in 2021.^[67] Rising prices played an important role, as the value of imports rose by 65.7 percent while the volume only rose by 12.6 percent. The 2021 import total was also 29.3 percent larger by value than the 2019, pre-pandemic level. Major import sources remained largely unchanged, with Canada and the United Arab Emirates being the largest suppliers, although imports from each increased by 68.1 percent and 60.3 percent, respectively, by value. While the United States is not a significant exporter of unwrought aluminum and saw decreased domestic output of primary unwrought aluminum from 2020 to 2021,^[68] domestic exports of unwrought aluminum increased by more than $224.6 million (43.3 percent) in 2021. ^[69] The 2021 export total also represents a 15.8 percent increase over 2019. While major export destinations for unwrought aluminum remained largely unchanged, export growth likely reflects higher prices and larger volumes filling the supply gaps created by production curtailments elsewhere.

Corn

Backgrounds

The year 2021 saw record highs in agricultural commodity prices worldwide and average annual corn prices, in particular, surged by 58.4 percent compared to the previous year. Export prices for corn generally track closely across global markets, with many global corn price series generated from the non-seed no. 2 yellow corn price out of the U.S. Gulf Coast ports.^[70] U.S. corn is typically shipped by rail and truck from the interior of the country to be exported via bulk shipping to overseas markets. As an input into food, animal feed, and energy products, corn trade and its price movements have implications for several downstream markets. The United States was the largest global exporter of corn by value in 2019 and 2020.^[71] The 2021 corn price movements were driven by Chinese feed demand, declining global stocks, strong internal demand in Brazil, and weather-related corn supply disruptions in other non-U.S. corn exporting countries. These price movements had a positive impact on farm profits.

Prices for corn peaked in May 2021 at their highest levels since 2012, growing 31.2 percent from January 2021 alone (Figure ST.6).^[72] This price rally began in May 2020, with prices for corn rising or holding steady in every month but 1 in the following 12 months, growing by 111.5 percent from May 2020–April 2021. Although prices declined somewhat from June through October 2021, the price levels during those five months were still higher than the highest monthly corn price seen over the past seven years.

Source: USDA, ERS, Feed Grains Database, U.S. Gulf ports, Louisiana, monthly, accessed January 26, 2021.
Note: This price series was chosen to approximate the global price of corn because it is reflective of the spot price of corn in the Mississippi Gulf, the U.S. ports through which nearly two-thirds of all U.S. grains are exported. Denicoff, Prater, and Bahizi, Corn Transportation Profile, August 2014; USDA, FGIS, “Export Grain Inspection 2021,” accessed May 3, 2022. The United States is the top global exporter of corn, comprising approximately 30–45 percent of the world’s corn exports annually over the past five years. Pricing data are missing for September 2021, as shippers at the export terminals were not offering any bids in the month of September following Hurricane Ida-related power outages and damage to grain terminals. Monthly prices are averages of the daily average prices reported to USDA Agricultural Marketing Service at these export terminals. Email correspondence with U.S. government official, March 14, 2022; Plume and Huffstutter, “More Grain Terminals Found Damaged by Ida, Exports May Stall for Weeks,” September 1, 2021.

Global Supply Factors

On the supply side, global corn prices had been impacted by weather events in several key producing countries in the previous growing season that diminished total production, causing countries to run down their corn stocks. Total world corn supply was lower in the U.S. 2019/20 marketing year ending in August 2020 compared to the previous marketing year.^[73] This was due in large part to lower-than-expected yields in the United States for crops harvested in September–November 2019, and in Brazil (the second-largest exporter of corn after the United States) for crops harvested in June–September 2020, as a result of poor weather during the growing season in both countries.^[74] While global production levels rebounded somewhat during the U.S. 2020/21 marketing year, global stocks declined further, as La Niña-related weather events negatively impacted yields in Brazil and strong internal demand in the major corn-exporting countries increased domestic consumption.^[75] As a result, the amount of corn available for export could not keep pace with global import demand, driving up global prices.

Global Demand Factors

The major driver in 2021 of increasing global corn prices on the demand side was China’s demand for feed inputs following the outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) experienced by the Chinese swine industry. The first cases of ASF were reported in August 2018. In the months that followed, China’s hog herd was decimated, reduced by over 40 percent between October 2018 and October 2019 according to Chinese government statistics.^[76] China’s overall animal feed demand declined in turn, and although feed demand in other meat sectors that were being substituted for pork partially offset these losses, China’s corn consumption was depressed in the 2018/19 and 2019/20 U.S. marketing years.^[77] Once China’s efforts to rebuild its swine herd began to see results and herd numbers started to rebound (about May 2019 according to official Chinese data), more feed was needed to sustain the herd’s growth to pre-ASF numbers, with China’s total domestic animal feed production seeing an increase of about 10 percent year-over-year in 2020. ^[78] The demand for feed continued into 2021, as the Chinese official statistics estimated a corn supply gap of 18.5 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2020/21 U.S. marketing year.^[79] Additionally, China’s state reserves of corn were reported to be nearly depleted via 15 rounds of auctions from May to September 2020.^[80] Much of this corn was bought for commercially owned stocks, which appeared to be at a record high in early 2021 with some feed mills reporting holding a six-month inventory compared to the usual two-three months. With increased demand by animal sector end users and a delay in corn stocks reaching end users, China’s internal price for corn grew 50 percent year-over-year from April 2020 to April 2021, increasing import demand and putting significant upward pressure on the global price for corn. ^[81]

Chinese demand for feed reportedly slowed in mid-2021, in part explaining the declining global corn prices in the latter half of the year. ^[82] Reportedly, lower Chinese corn purchases at state-run auctions in the latter half of the year indicated that hog farms were not interested in restocking their herd at that time and had made a strong substitution in their feed inputs for wheat and rice.^[83] The lack of interest by Chinese producers in continuing to restock their hog herd was informed in part by continued ASF outbreaks in parts of the country in early to mid-2021.^[84] This threat of infection led producers to sell their animals to reduce their risk of losses to ASF. This influx of hogs on the Chinese market contributed to the decrease in the Chinese pork price, which, in turn, lessened the demand for pork feed further.^[85]

The United States was the country that met the majority of China’s increased corn import demand in 2021. While this was in part because of the abovementioned lower yields in other major corn-producing countries, macroeconomic trends and strong internal demand for corn in Brazil also played a role in dampening Brazil’s corn exports during 2021, removing it as a corn supplier for China. Continued depreciation of the Brazilian real (BRL)—30 percent weaker against the U.S. dollar in March 2021 than in March 2020—made imports into Brazil comparatively more expensive,^[86] thus increasing the internal price for corn feed inputs for the livestock sector.^[87] Internal demand for feed was strong as well in Brazil, driven by Chinese demand for Brazilian animal products; China imports over half of Brazil’s pork and beef exports.^[88] Strong Chinese demand, driven by consumer switching from pork to other animal proteins and reliance on imported pork following ASF, acted in concert with the continued BRL depreciation, which made Brazilian exports more competitively priced, and drove record export values of Brazilian pork and beef.^[89] As a result, Brazil tended to rely more heavily on its domestic supply of corn in 2021, including its stocks, to meet its animal feed demand, restricting global supply and serving to put further upward pressure on corn prices.^[90]

Impact on U.S. Trade Flows

U.S. exports of corn in 2021 grew by $9.4 billion to $19.0 billion, with the divergence in the relative magnitude of this change in value versus volume (102.4 percent by value and by 35 percent by volume) reflecting the increasing price of corn globally from 2020 to 2021.^[91] China’s imports of corn rose sharply in the 2021 calendar year, growing from $2.5 billion to $8.0 billion (221 percent) over the previous year, a 151 percent quantity increase of nearly 17 MMT. These imports of corn by China represented over 20 percent of all corn imports globally. Of China’s 2021 corn imports, about 70 percent by value originated in the United States.^[92] This represented an increase of 12 MMT of U.S. corn exports to China over the previous year according to U.S. trade data. In terms of value, U.S. corn exports to China rose by $3.9 billion (316.4 percent) to $5.1 billion.^[93]

Trade policies in the United States and China may be partly responsible for the rise in Chinese imports of U.S. corn.^[94] China agreed to purchases of at least $80 billion in U.S. agricultural commodities between 2020 and 2021 as part of the Economic and Trade Agreement between the United States of America and The People’s Republic of China, more commonly known as the Phase One Deal, which entered into force on February 14, 2020.^[95] China’s corn imports from the United States have far exceeded the 2017 baseline totals of $152 million for corn upon which targets for the Phase One Deal were negotiated; U.S. corn exports to China totaled $1.2 billion in 2020, while 2021 exports totaled $5.1 billion, exceeding the 2020 full-year total by the end of April.^[96] China’s corn imports also far exceeded its tariff-rate quota (TRQ) in-quota volume of 7.2 MMT in 2020 and 2021. Chinese official data report 11.3 MMT of corn imports in 2020, exceeding China’s World Trade Organization (WTO) TRQ for the first time in history,^[97] and with even larger volumes of corn imported in 2021, the in-quota volume was exceeded again in 2021.^[98] USDA reports that it remains unclear if the 65 percent out-of-quota duty was applied to imported corn in 2020 or if additional in-quota volume for the corn TRQs was allowed by the Chinese government.^[99]

U.S. corn exports to the world increased by over 18 MMT in 2021 from the previous year. With 24.2 percent of all U.S. corn exports, Mexico was the second largest export market for U.S. corn in 2021 after China (26.9 percent) and ahead of Japan (16.6 percent). U.S. exports to Mexico rose by $2.0 billion (76 percent) to $4.7 billion in 2021. ^[100]

Figure ST.7. Monthly natural gas prices by location, January 1992–November 2021
Price in U.S. dollars per million British thermal units (MMBtu). Underlying data for this figure are available for download at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/ with the following time series datasets: PNGASJPUSDM, PNGASEUUSDM, and PNGASUSUSDM.

 

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