This site offers industry-specific, partial equilibrium (PE) modeling tools that can be used to simulate the economic impact of changes in trade policies. The models are based on economic theory and can be applied to specific industry data and policy scenarios.

PE models are sets of equations that identify the economic factors that influence the prices and sales of imports and competing domestic products in the industry. They estimate the economic impact of changes in tariff rates, including changes in equilibrium prices, domestic shipments, or imports from their initial values. PE models are often used for prospective analysis of policy changes not yet in force, though they can also be used to analyze the impact of policy changes in the past.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS

The models posted on this Portal are the result of ongoing professional research of USITC staff and are solely meant to represent the opinions and professional research of individual staff economists. The models are not meant to represent in any way the view of the U.S. International Trade Commission or any of its individual Commissioners.

This Portal contains generic versions of the models with fictional, illustrative data. The models do not include the data or other customizations included in Commission reports. Predictions based on these models will depend on the specific data and parameter values that are supplied by the user, and so these predictions are solely the responsibility of the user of the modeling tools.

Displaying 1 - 10 of 32

Model Type Release Date Summary
Ahmad and Riker Elasticity of Substitution Dataset for U.S. Manufacturing Industries Dataset

The substitution elasticities found in this dataset are estimated using the structural relationship between the price-cost markup and the elasticity of substitution in industries operating under monopolistic competition. Elasticities of substitution are reported at the three-digit, four-digit, and six-digit NAICS level.
Bertrand Differentiated Products Tariff Model Model

This variant includes three sources of supply to a single, highly concentrated domestic market. Firms maximize profits in a Bertrand-style competition. They choose their price taking the equilibrium prices of their competitors as given. Demand has a CES form. The model can simulate the effects of a tariff change on prices, quantities, and profits in the market.
CES Tariff Model Model

This is probably the most common model in industry-specific trade policy analysis. There are differentiated products from three different sources of supply and a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) among them. The model can simulate the effects of tariff changes on prices and quantities of imports and domestic shipments in the single national market.
CES Tariff Model with Nesting of Subject and Non-Subject Imports Model

This is a variant of the CES model that allows for a higher elasticity of substitution between the two sources or types of imports. This model is an alternative for simulating the effects of tariff changes on prices and quantities of imports and domestic shipments in the market.
CES Tariff Model with Nesting of the Domestic Product and Non-Subject Imports Model

This is a variant of the CES model that allows for a higher elasticity of substitution between the domestic product and non-subject imports. This model is an alternative for simulating the effects of tariff changes on prices and quantities of imports and domestic shipments in the market.
CES Tariff Model with Nesting of the Domestic Product and Subject Imports Model

This is a variant of the CES model that allows for a higher elasticity of substitution between the domestic product and subject imports. This model is an alternative for simulating the effects of tariff changes on prices and quantities of imports and domestic shipments in the market.
CES Tariff Model with Three Countries or Regions Model

This variant includes three source regions and three destination regions. They can be three countries or two countries with one of the countries split into two sub-national regions. This model simulates the effects on prices and volumes of imports and domestic production in all of the regions.
CES Tariff Model with Two Countries Model

This variant includes two source countries and two detination markets, domestic and foreign. This model can simulate the effects of tariff changes on prices and volumes of imports and domestic production in both of the markets.
CES Tariff Model without a Domestic Industry Model

This variant includes two foreign sources of supply to the market, subject imports and non-subject imports, but there is no domestic product. This variant can simulate the effects of tariff changes on prices and quantities of the two types of imports in the single market.
Cournot Tariff Model with 2 Firms Model

This variant includes two firms serving a highly concentrated domestic market. Firms maximize profits in a Cournot-style competition. They choose the quantity that they will sell taking the equilibrium quantities of their competitors as given. The model can simulate the effects of a tariff change on prices, quantities, and profits in the market.